So, today’s the big Republican South Carolina primary. Huckabee, vs. The Saint. Whoopdie freakin’ doo.
They keep reporting the polls and primary results in terms of percentages, as if that means anything. I wish they’d figure out the delegate counts and report what those are projected to be, based on the polls. I mean, for the Dems, SC has 54 delegates (CA has 411; so why are we so concerned with little states like Iowa, SC, and NH?).
Anyhow, if the polls today are close (big if, and there’s still a week to go in SC), that would mean (and I’m not sure about how many are committed or uncommitted and how many are up for grabs based on the vote, but whatever) 22 for Obama, 17 for Clinton, 7 for Edwards, and 8 undecided (give or take).
But guess what? There are 4,049 total delegates to be awarded, and it takes 2,025 to win the nomination. The primaries and caucuses select 3,253, the other 796 are “unpledged,†and can vote whatever way the wind’s blowing.
Even if the “frontrunner” gets all the unpledged delegates, they’d still need 1,229 of the delegates up for grabs – or about 38%. Any combination of pledged or unpledged delegates for all other candidates combined that adds up to 62% of the total, and nobody wins on the first ballot. Now, some states – Missouri, for instance – are winner take all, but most of them aren’t, so, really, winning by a “huge” 10% margin doesn’t mean all that much in terms of delegate count.
But that’s not the way the media reports it. They talk about momentum and “big leads” that don’t mean squat. And they’ll be pushing Edwards to drop out (if they mention him at all). And, in the end, we’ll probably get Obama or Clinton vs. McCain. The media loves McCain, so they’ll shove his maverick, straight talkin’ sainthood down our throats, and between that and the rigged voting system, guess what we’ll wind up with?