I deliberately decided not to pay attention to how things went last night (one of the advantages to recording everything you might want to watch, and skipping the commercials; I have a month’s worth of Boston Legal to catch up on). So I don’t know who the big winner was. My prediction, before I go ahead and look, is that Obama took the night.
For those who care, I did, indeed, go ahead and pull the lever (yes, here in NY, we still have levers – for now). My plan was to vote for one candidate, and choose John Edwards’ delegate slate. I figured that would somehow fuck things up. Unfortunately, only Obama and Clinton actually had delegates in my district, so that shot that plan down.
Granny, I might add, couldn’t bring herself to vote at all. Can’t blame her.
Anyhow, in the end, I decided to be very analytical. As Kat said yesterday, I’m not much of a predictor as to who will win, so I decided to leave out electability as a criterion. And anyway, that got us Kerry as a candidate last time around. I also decided to forget about likability. I don’t actually like either one of them. Not right now, anyway. I still resent the fact that Edwards was ignored, and I’ve transferred my animosity to both of them.
So, anyway, I spent a great deal of my free time yesterday (by ‘free time,’ I of course mean ‘while I was working’) looking at both of their voting records in some detail (Obama has a bit less to look at), and I also reviewed their official platforms on everything. They are astoundingly similar in just about every way. In ways I like – and in ways I don’t. Oh, Obama seems to pay some lip service to ethics reform and the like, but mostly they’re the same side of the same coin (at least as official positions go).
What I noticed, though, was that every one of Clinton’s positions had a pretty fair amount of detail behind it. A lot of detail, actually. Now, Presidents don’t get to just implement their plans. They have to get them though Congress, and they get all kinds of changed along the way, and they always seem to pretty much suck when they come out the other end of the sausage machine. So, what’s the difference whether there’s any detail behind the plan?
Well, to me, it shows that the person really put some thought behind it. It kind of shows me that they really know the issue inside and out, and understand a lot of the – hate to say this – nuances behind it. Also, I’m what granny always refers to as left-brained (truth be told, there’s a lot more right brain in there than I get credit for), and I have to admit, I like to see some detail. I like the vague ‘feel good’ talk as much as the next guy, but unless you tell me just how things are gonna work, I’m likely to think you’re just making up a good story.
I guess that’s why I prefer Isaac Asimov to Ray Bradbury.
So, in the end, I voted for Clinton. Did it fast, too. Like pulling off a band-aid®. And that’s why I predict that Barack Obama was the big winner last night, and why I predict he’ll be the Democratic nominee for President. Because nobody I vote for ever wins.
Now I guess it’s time to get up and see how I did.
Happy Ash Ordinary Wednesday!
:priest:
Well, wrong again, as usual. Looks like nobody won just yet.
Ah, Ash Wednesday. Back in college, I used to stick my fingers in the ash tray, schmear ’em on my forehead, and then go try to hook up with Catholic chicks.
Enough of this election nonsense. We need British retro-pop thrushes with big noses. Since Amy is hopefully maintaining her sobriety and preparing for the Grammys, here’s another one:
http://tinyurl.com/2nnvme
Mark Ronson produced, so there is an Amy connection. And she drinks!
:alc:
:joe: :joe: :joe: :joe: :joe: 😮 😮 :yuck: :crap: :paranoid: 😯 😯
❓ ❓ ❓ Whatever :sheep: le
Gee, guess I was wrong yet again. Looking at what the Obama true believers have to say, this was actually a huge win for Obama.
How come the Japanese get all the good stuff?
Morning! :joe: :joe:
I’m sure the spinning has begun as to who won big, but ib truth, they seem to have fought each other to a draw. Interesting that Hillary took Mass, and Cali, two states in which Kennedy campaigned very hard.
McCain, won in all the states that Rethugs don’t carry. Huckabee won 5 states and a lot of pundits (aka idiots) were suggesting that Huckabee will be McCain’s running mate. That’s one awful ticket.
I just looked at Huffpo:
Obama won 13 states, Clinton 9
Clinton won the popular vote total and more delegates.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/06/super-tuesday-results_n_85159.html
John McCain hasn’t exactly been vague on where he stands on the War in Iraq. He’s not just for it, he wants to have it for one hundred years, and he basically wants to be credited with being the biggest supporter of the “Surge” and General Petraeus. Along the way, he’s painted his primary opponent, Mitt Romney as a timetable-loving, war hero dissing, coddler of Islamic extremists. No one should have any doubts about the extent to which McCain wants to mong himself some wars. Yet, in an exit poll analysis conducted by CNN’s Bill Schneider, anti-war Republicans haven’t seemed to have gotten the memo:
Among those Republicans who disapprove of the war, nearly half voted for McCain, while only a quarter voted for Mitt Romney — even though McCain spent the past few weeks trying to portray Romney as more liberal on the war.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/05/curious-and-curiouser-mc_n_85212.html
This is what bothers me about voters, they vote on the basis of perceptions that have no reality. Unfortunately, that’s not limited to Rethugs.
OK, gotta go to work. Blog latte. Have a good one.
Best spin I saw was from Jurrasic Pork, live blogging the results last night over at B@B.
It’s great, because it’s both true (in that Clinton is, indeed, a native, um, whattya call ’em, Illini?), and deceptive at the same time. If you didn’t know, you’d think Clinton had been an Illinois State Senator and was currently a US Senator from Illinois. The key is the use of the term “turf.” Not home state, or native state or whatever, but “her own home turf.”
Brilliant. And not even at breakfast.
It doesn’t matter to me if Clinton wins or Obama wins anymore. I have anxiety fatigue. 🙄
I have to agree with you, KP. I did my part, tried to make an informed choice, and now my opinion – which didn’t matter much to begin with – doesn’t much matter at all, anymore.
On a bright note, in my county, there was a record turnout for the Democrats (for a primary: 44%), despite some pretty crappy weather. For Republicans, not so much. In NYS, there was about 35% turnout for Democrats (which is pretty good for a primary), and like 19% for Republicans (which is just Guidi Ruliani and his ex-wives, I think). 1.7 million or so for Democrats, and a measly 587,000 Republicans. Of course, we have the bastids outnumbered 5 to 3, here in NY, so their percentages are a bit inflated.
There were also people at my polling place who thought they could just come in and vote without being registered to one part or the other. Silly independents.
There were a whole lot of independents that showed up to the polls and weren’t able to vote. I don’t know if they just didn’t re register or if they did and their party affiliation wasn’t changed in the system, like what happened to me. But I find it odd that my address info was correct but the party affiliation wasn’t. It’s possible I had re registered when I moved and then re re registered to change my party affiliation. The thing is, independents were able to choose which primary to vote in the last election and that has been changed since. There wasn’t a big public info campaign to let people know about this like there was when prop 200 went through with all the complicated id rules.
I got on Jeffs’ show yesterday so listen for that.
Ola!
At ALT airport. Vern, I’m headed to Blue’s territory – WA state. Wenatchee to be exact.
I was reading the McPaper and it said Obama wanted to be within a 100 of Clinton As it turned out, he’s much closer: hrc 261 ob 202.
See ya all in west coast time zone (unless I get stuck in Shitcargo!)
PS I knew the Huckster was going to clean up in GA. Obama’s huge win kind of surprised me. AND I’m proud that our mr fk’s son and my son pulled the lever for a black man and a white woman. Times they are a changin’!
Have a good trip, FK. Hard to tell what the real delegate count is, due to all these really odd rules they have. It’s darn close, either way, and CW seems to think the rest of the primary calendar bodes well for Obama.
Let’s just keep the crazy old white guy (take your pick) out of there, come November.
Look forward to hearing your voice on Jeff, KP. Tell him to have Maron sub for him next time he takes a day off.
Oooh, that’s a good idea, PJ. 💡
Scary.
Yay, I just heard KP on Jeff.
I don’t know about y’all, but I didn’t feel all emotional when I voted yesterday. If I was gonna get all choked up over something, it would be that it was probably my last time pulling that big old lever on the voting machine. You really feel like you voted when you crank that baby back and snap open the curtain.
Yup…I’m officially behind in chem. Could mean :reaper: for me.
I was emotional, I was pissed off that I had to vote provisionally. 😡
Yeah, that would have irked me, too. We don’t seem to have these problems here. Walk in, tell ’em you’re name, sign the book, vote, and try not to make eye contact with the bake sale lady on your way out (unless you want a cookie).
Good luck, Travis. That Chem shit is a pain.
PJ, I had the same thought yesterday. I’m going to miss those machines. They were quite reliable, too. Unfortunately no one makes them anymore, so in order to fix a broken one, they have to take parts from another (more?) broken one.
And, they had the advantage of being too big and heavy for some party hack to take it home for the night.
Last year FK posted the Great Backyard Bird Count info and I had a good time sitting in my backyard for a little while and counting birds. There were quite a few: seagulls, chickadees, pigeons among them. No redtail Hawks named Palemale ot Lola, though.
This year the count is being held next weekend.
http://www.birdsource.org/gbbc/
Yeah, the lever machines have a relatively high rate of residual votes (votes not counted), though they’re less susceptible to deliberate tampering. You’re pretty much taking it on faith that something’s going on in there when you flip the levers. They’re just a bunch of cams and shafts with nubbies on them, and if something is misaligned or worn down, a vote might not register. And there’s no record of individual votes – just the totals. Talk about no paper trail.
I read someplace that 99 shows up in vote totals on lever machines much more frequently than normal random distribution would account for. They think that’s because it takes more force to turn the vote counting wheels in the machine from 99 to 100, so if it’s gonna jam, it’s more likely to do it at 99. So the machines are probably not properly maintained, and they jam and lose who knows how many votes.
When they do a recount, all they can do is match the vote totals that were written down with the numbers on the counters in back.
In my county, it looks like they’ve decided on the Sequoia ImageCast voting machines. Basically, a paper ballot where you mark your choices and then run it through an optical scanner. They also have some sort of doo-dad to mark ballots for the disabled (a BMD – ballot marking device). So, at least you can go back and count the paper ballots if you have to.
What I’m unclear on is how the votes are tabulated and stored after the ballot is scanned, and how the numbers are transferred from an individual precinct and/or machine to the county board of elections.
You can rig the way the machines count the votes (or you can have an error in the program), since the source code on these things is proprietary and kept secret), meaning you can still steal the election.
Recounts need to be triggered, not on how close an election is, but if there’s a statistically significant deviation between the ‘actual’ vote and exit polls (which aren’t necessarily always available). And if you do recount, you’d better not just run them through the same scanner and tabulator that you used the first time. You need to count the damn things by hand.
Better yet, save the money on the machines, buy a bunch of pizzas, and get volunteers to sit down and count paper ballots by hand – out in the open, with anybody who wants to watch looking over their shoulders (they have to buy their own pizza, though) – from the beginning.
Does it really matter if I know the election results by the 11 o’clock news? If it means my vote gets counted accurately, I can wait a day or two.
But, do they listen to me? No. Bastids.
Hi PJ, sorry,was making a hotel reservation….stuck at O’Hare. I may get out on a 7:55 p flight but doesn’t look good. It’s a blizzard up here and the United gal in Atlanta said the weather would be fine. Ha!
I’ll miss my flight to Wenatchee so I either stay the night here or Seattle. Exciting! (except trying to find an el cheapo-no-bed-bugs hotel)
I think we have those machines, PJ.
It’s stored on a memory card that gets taken by a poll worker to a collection area right after the polls close so they can get some numbers. There is also a paper receipt that gets recorded on some paperwork at the polls and then is put into a locked bag or box and taken to the same collection area later.
I was trying to get in to the First Class Lounge (I’m traveling using miles) and they were going to charge me 50 bucks. this nice guy (a doc) rescued me and brought me in as his guest. He saw a book I had and we’re both working on the same thing – great conversation and just a nice fella. Haven’t hit the free wine yet though. :alc:
Yeah, my friend in Milwaukee says it’s a white out up there. She just lost power for a bit. :cold:
The machines are there at the polls the night before while the poll workers set up the tables and forms and signs for the morning. The machines are left at the polling place over night but I had the keys to them. Whoever owns the building that the polling place is in does not have a key to them.
Yep, she’s blowing out there!
Sorry to hear about your provisional ballot. I LIKE those lever machines….like Vegas without spending money!
FK?
Do you still have my phone number?
I may be going out for supper with my Georgia friends tonight.
Ok just sent you an email :knit:
Jeff Farias’ wife just emailed me wanting my voter id. Now we’ll get to the bottom of this. She is a Federal Compliance Officer for the Maricopa County Elections! :fist:
40,000 provisional ballots were filled out yesterday.
Blue, I won’t get in until 10:30. I don’t leave seattle until 1 or so tomorrow, though. They’re showing my flight is going….so far.
i do not have your cell. my email is souleiadofarm at yahoo and i’ll email you mine.
So, the votes are stored on a memory card, but they have to be tabulated somehow, and where does that happen? IOW, is there a unique record stored of each voter ‘session’ (for lack of a better term), and all the sessions are then loaded into a central tabulator somewhere to be added together? Or, more likely, are the raw vote totals updated in the machine as each ballot is loaded? Where is the program that does the tabulating stored? And how secure is the ‘locked’ machine (I’ve seen demos of some that can be opened without tools in about a half second). I’ve also seen that uncertified ‘patches’ to the software frequently get loaded by voting machine company reps just prior to the election.
On an HBO documentary, they showed a programmer dude load a memory card into a machine that had a program on it that altered the vote totals (the voting machine companied said it was impossible) and was undetectable once the card was swapped back out again.
They also showed a voting tabulation program that had a password interface and auditing on the front end, but you could access the database on the back end directly and change the vote totals any way you wanted to, with no indication that it had been changed – let alone who changed it.
Having the paper record is better than not having it, but if you’re counting the votes by computer, there’s really no way to know if the results are valid.
Sorry you got stuck in Chicago, Kat. I guess you’ll just have to go hit up Legends (Buddy Guy’s blues club).
ohhhhh
Yes.
If you call KPHX right this very minute you can talk to Jeffs’ wife who is now explaining everything. I don’t have time to sit on hold right now or I would call.
602 258 8800
Oh, I’ll catch it on the podcast tomorrow. Not a lot of confidence in Sequoia, though.
who is “Jeff”?
Jeff Farias
Jeff Farias has a local show on KPHX in Phoenix (you can stream it live or download the podcasts from NovaM). He’s better than anything on AAR these days (IMHO).
thanks,pj. I haven’t heard him. To think aar has gone from morning sedition to bill press is unimaginable.
Yes. It is both shameful, and ignominious.
F’kat,
Good luck in the travels. I’ve done that one close to this time of the year and it is an adventure and beautiful at the same time.
I love Jeffs’ deep voice. :love: I saw him and his wifes band and I thought Jeffs’ bass vocals would be great for singing sea shanty’s. Yo ho ho and a bottle of RUM! :40: :alc: