Tonight is the 82nd Annual Academy Awards ceremony. This used to be a big deal back when I was running movies. I seem to recall we’d have Oscar parties, and get together to watch, though I’m not sure how we managed to do that, since we all had to work on Sunday nights. I guess we probably taped them (yes, tape; this was a long time ago) to watch after work. Now, though, I don’t much care one way or another about the things, though I’ve at least heard of most of the films and actors that were nominated, unlike the Grammys. But I supposed that’s just how it goes when you get old. Back in my day, music was music, you could make a decent living as a working person and have health insurance for your family and a pension to live on when you retired. We walked 100 miles each way to school (but we had fun doing it), never had to lock our doors, and let our dogs roam freely about the neighborhood (in fact, mine would follow me to school in the morning, then make her rounds about the neighborhood getting handouts along the way, and be there waiting to walk me home at the end of the day). Now we have the Internet, cell phones, and HDTV though, so I suppose it’s a fair tradeoff.

So, who will the big winners be tonight? For one, I’m guessing the dual hosts of Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin will go over well. Especially if they let them have a little fun, and don’t stick them with a bunch of schlocky material (which I guess is kind of the definition of Oscar-hosting material, but some is worse than others). I mean, you’ve got Steve Martin for us old-timers (and who doesn’t like Steve Martin), plus Alec Baldwin, for all us, um, old-timers. And it seems like a good match, since Steve is a smart alec and Alec is smart (not that Steve isn’t smart).

For best picture, the only one I’ve seen (on DVD) is District 9, which I thought was pretty good. If you listen to the WTF podcast, you know the disdain that Maron has for James Cameron’s Avatar, which is also up for best picture. I haven’t seen it, personally (other than some extended clips back in October before it came out), so I can’t really comment on it. Maron’s big problem seems to be that, well, for one, it’s Sci-Fi, which he doesn’t like, and also that it cost a lot of money to make. I guess you can always argue whether it’s worth it to spend lots of money making a movie (or paying an actor or an athlete – or even a comedian), and that the money would be better spent on something else. No doubt, it would be.

But I personally don’t care whether it cost $1 million or $1 billion to make a movie. It’s either a good movie (IMHO), or it sucks. From what I’ve seen of Avatar, it looks to be somewhere in the middle. Kinda neat, but not that great. And I’m not sure that Avatar was really all that expensive to make. I’ve seen people throw out estimates like half a billion dollars (which, by the way, if you adjust for inflation, is what it cost to make War and Peace – though, to be fair, that’s like 8 hours), but I’ve seen it suggested that it’s more like $300 million. That’s still a lot of money to a schlub like me, but it’s grossed about $2.5 billion worldwide (and we’re not even talkin’ all the merchandising and whatnot), so while it may not have been “worth it” to produce in terms of its having a positive affect on society, I reckon it was pretty much worth it to investors.

Another movie up for best picture is The Hurt Locker, by James Cameron’s ex-wife, Kathryn Bigelow. I haven’t seen that one, either. It isn’t the kind of movie that makes it up my way (unless it wins an Oscar, and then we’ll see a wider distribution). It sounds pretty interesting, though.

Also nominated are “The Blind Side, An Education”, “Inglourious Basterds”, “Precious”, “A Serious Man”, and “Up in the Air”.

My prediction is that The Hurt Locker will win. It’s the kind of movie that lets us get behind our troops over there in Iraq (which we’ve pretty much forgotten about), but it’s also been on NPR a lot, so it’s got the liberal Hollywood elite seal of approval, and the cast and director were on the Today Show the day the nominations came out (and GE isn’t even an investor in it), which I think pretty much seals it.

Best Actor nominations are Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”, George Clooney in “Up in the Air”, Colin Firth in “A Single Man”, Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”, and Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”.

Well, as you might have guessed, I haven’t seen any of these. I like George Clooney, and Morgan Freeman has been great in everything I’ve seen him in, but I think I’ll have to go with Jeff Bridges on this one. I hear he was good in this flick (and the Academy loves it when they do their own singing, which he did), plus, let’s face it, most of the voters these days grew up watching Sea Hunt, and everybody knows Lloyd Bridges should have gotten an Oscar for his work in Airplane, so I think Jeff gets the nod here.

For Best Actress, the nominees are Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”, Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”, Carey Mulligan in “An Education”, Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”, and Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”. Okay, I didn’t see any of these, either (except a few clips of “Julia”). Meryl Streep is always hard to bet against, but since Dan Aykroyd gave the consummate performance of Julia Child that nobody can possibly outdo, I think Streep is SOL this year. Old broads are usually a pretty good bet, too. But Helen Mirren has already won an Oscar, and, besides, she’s British. This is America, and I don’t think we’re in the mood to be handing out our awards to foreigners this year. For that reason, I think I’ll go with that all-American girl in that All-American, Horatio Alger kinda story (true, even) of homeless boy makes good and plays football, Sandra Bullock. After all, she dyed her hair blonde in this movie, which is quite a stretch for her.

Best Supporting Actor nominees in movies I haven’t seen are Matt Damon in “Invictus”, Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”, Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”, Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”, and Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”. I can’t help but be a fan of anybody who’s a hemp advocate, but I don’t think this is the year of the Woody. It may only be Canada, but Christopher Plummer is still a foreigner (and the Academy wouldn’t want to be seen as advocating for universal health care by giving an Oscar to a Canuck). Creepy child molester murderers aren’t really the “feel good” kinda characters the voters are looking for this year, so I think Tucci is out of the running. I think Quentin Tarantino scares the bejesus out of the Academy, and they don’t want to totally ignore one of his films. Plus, who can’t get behind a little bit of Nazi-killin’? That’s why I’ll go with Waltz to take this award.

For Best Supporting Actress (again, haven’t seen any of these), there’s Penélope Cruz in “Nine”, Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”, Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”, Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”, Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”. I just saw Penélope Cruz in a movie whose name I can’t remember the other day with Ben Kingsley and Dennis Hopper. I have to admit, I was impressed with her, um, talents. But, again, “foreginer.” I’ve always liked Maggie Gyllenhaal, but she looks too much like a regular human being to win an Oscar. The smart money would probably be on Mo’Nique, who would be (I think), only the second one-name actress to win an Oscar (Cher won for Moonstruck in 1987, IIRC). But I’m going with a bit of an upset here, and go with fellow SU Alum, Vera Farmiga.

The Best Director nominees are Avatar’s James Cameron, The Hurt Locker’s Kathryn Bigelow, Inglourious Basterds’ Quentin Tarantino, Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire’s Lee Daniels, and Up in the Air’s Jason Reitman. I’m going with Bigelow on this one.

As for all the pissant little categories that nobody gives a shit about? My guess is Avatar will rack up a bunch of these so it can be branded as “Winner of 5 Academy Awards” or whatever, and have a second release to make another billion dollars or so before the DVD sales kick in.

Whatever happens, I’ll have to read about it in the paper, ‘cuz I won’t be watching. I’ll be watching the season finale (crap! It’s over already?) of Big Love.

Have a good one.